United States presidential election in
November, Republicans open Convention up
to 21 days, was formally
appointed Mr. Trump presidential candidate. Or
missing a portion of the principal, whether or
not Mr. Cruise expressed support, but became an
unusual Party Congress, that from
there seemed, American studies expert
at SFC Keio University Professor Watanabe IT was
the contribution of Mr. Yasushi.
Looking back at Republican Convention
In addition to the axis of the conflict as "maintenance"
against "liberal", "haves" versus "have-nots",
"globalization" vs "anti-globalization", also
the purely new dividing lines as "Caucasian"
against "minority" United States presidential
election at this timeappear on. Future challenges and strategies,
Mr. Donald Trump through the Republican
Convention four days was completely thrown into relief.
(1) printing irregular comment
70% of voters to Mr. Trump delegates, who attended
the Party Congress. 90% of Mr. Mitt
Romney last time (12 years), much lower than
the 98% John McCain until the
last (08 years). Despite holding in battleground Ohio,
Governor John Keshikku (Republican) is
missing. Ted Cruz, who is contesting
the primaries until the last refused to
support claims on stage.
Nomination speech, Mr. Trump was suppression
of those that were conscious partyharmony. But
calm, if a speech using the teleprompter.
The problem lies in interviews
and meetings, but irregular performance
in debate. Inan interview with the New York
Times from 20 days, recommended to review the system
of common defence of NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization),
critiqueand clamor rose jumping from
party diplomatic and security officials. Among these"call on
the
PC (presumably theory)" incorrect speech lawyer not
a few good or camp can manage Mr. Trump. The
party was divided in United States presidential
elections was defeated by almost constantly. Impact
on parliamentary elections should also not be overlooked.
(2) reinstatement of the Organization
Election funds, which the Clinton camp brought together while 288 million
dollars (about 30.6 billion yen), the Trump camp is $ 90 million (of which own
pocket $ 50 million).
In addition, the Clinton camp has opened more
than 100 offices elections in 14 States around
the battleground states, when the Organization of
elections employees in45 States, the Trump camp
is sparse. There is only a phone number close to the
opening of the closed Office of not a few, such
as ... did not meet the staff in half from the
schedule. Dogfight (tv commercials, Internet) and land
warfare (door canvassing,canvassing) is sent in the
final boost brutal as far Yukeru objective to
work with national and local organizations of the Republican
party. Family troubles dangerous signal and seems
to come hear the leak.
(3) specific requirements
Even the slogan of "the restoration of law and
order," "the first United States" touches a
chord in recent years, the American people, questioned the
specific content of the policy in the future. United States presidential
election, is to duplicate the year Summer
Olympics. Usually, the two parties at the Party
Congress, but was held at the Olympics "after",
this time before the Olympics and premature about one
month. This amount, you can understand the point, was focused
on the first image down Mr.Clinton at the moment at
the Party Congress. What would determine the partner at an
early stage is a standard tactic of the presidential elections
in the United
States.Clinton's criticism is also a trump card of the
unity party.
However, addressing the voters of anxiety and frustration,
the other party is not encumbered, it's loud
enough shout "reform" is, as a rule, until
the end of August to start a party Convention. Trump's recommendations
or worthy of the name "policy". Whether or not
only rude "wish". Voters eye soon
also will become increasingly real.
(4) Kirikuzushi of the Democratic Party
Party to the Convention was, could see also strategy
that will Kirikuzuso bearing layer Bernie Sanders of
the Democratic Party. Also mentioned twice in Mr.
Sanders at Trump speech and such (although they cannot be
considered a party to the Convention of the Republican party
in the past), "promotion of LGBT (sexual
minorities) and renegotiated a free trade agreement." message also was
released. In addition to the policy statement for the revival
of the Congress did not approve the lame
duck period of free trade agreement (about two months
before the new administration, launched from after the
election), "" (the definition of Division of banks and
securities) glass-steagall Act, etc., they lined up the
wording, such as cast love looks on bearing
layer, Mr. Sanders.
By the way although politics is a kind
of "undertaking" is much closer to
the "empty promises". But an interesting document to
decipher the party power relationships, weight is
also binding, such as the "Manifesto" of
Japan without any (it's
not that Yuku designed to finals) almost on
paper to reduce the Finished side of the
Convention. Staple such "revival of the gold
standard," permanent transfer "Jerusalem Israel Embassy
of the United States," "commitment
to Bible education in high
school," but feasibility is nil.
(5) independent penetration
One of the peculiarities of this election
campaign is two party candidates is unpopular. Looking
at the various polls tend to Clinton
and Mr. Trump support rate (nearly
equal) 70-75% combined, those who answer "to vote
for the third candidate" 20-25%, "not
yet determined"
— 5 to 10 percent, or where. Usually about 5% immediately after
the party support rate increases, and two or three
weeks, the poll also calmthe tide to the finals will
come clear. Thus figures at the moment is quite fluid, an
important exploration of the two main political
parties yet not fluttering.
A worrying trend is the
third candidates. Libertarian Party of 10 to 13%,
Green
Partyscored from about 3-speed support 5%. More
than 15%, was observed to participate in the
debate, attention is growing on
the stretch. Former Republican party, the latter may take the
vote of the Democratic Party. The prospectus did not win in
the final, but may affect battlefield outcomes.
By the way, now, but on the
battlefield States about 10 States, Ohio and
Florida Republicans, is a
rich and defeat fall even one from North
Carolina. Conversely, the Democratic Party would think
that fight in Pennsylvania in panic mode. The
Trump camp, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, to stir things
up is the key to the Clinton camp, in the
West, many white workers layer.
(6) the function of the vice-presidential candidate
The Trump camp would
pick the "correct" Mike Pence
(Indiana Governor) Vice Presidential candidate. Rich
experience, thick trust party can also be expected
to camp and party facilitator. However, the construction
of the walls of a prohibition on entryand
borders Mexico Muslim (including in cases of rape or
incest) same-sex
marriage, abortion, when opposition as
casinos, have also supported avid free trade.In other
words, Mr. Trump in the opposite, in fact, the
position of the election endorsed Mr. cruise. In this
regard, it will be dressed as ammunition for the Democratic
Party. In addition, the values are Sugiyo conservative
for independent voters (especially women).
In connection with the appointment of Mr. Clinton probably camp pence was
determined to go to take
the medium (= independent). Tim Kane centrist faction (Senator)
was appointed as the Vice Presidential candidate. This will also
be the "correct". It is expected that support
for Mr. Clinton may appeal to the weak, "white", "male". In
addition, Mr. pence, rich experience,
thick trust party, bright sound, even in
diplomacy. He is a fluent Spanish Virginia election battle
in bonus. However, because there are
also supporters of free trade, there is also the possibility
that proliferation is frustrating some Sanders in
supporting layer.
However, once you have completed your party-with the exception
of the Vice
Presidential candidates debate (once)-little attention is
no longer (for this amount, expected role as "attack dog" for
candidates from the opposition). It's unlikely that vice
presidential candidate, to affect the outcome of the final
round, but, acting on behalf of, or contributed to, if
there is any chance that the President. But there is still
a significant presence in the political.
(7) policy change
When listening to Trump comments, he's not wiped
away the impression that reflects both politics and
diplomacy, if it is a
"business negotiations." Short-term "victory"and "pragmatic"
are not only interested, don't come nearly handed
the United States and the international society of world
view that earlier. Is it relevant to say, however,
even with clear, if the activities of the Association of
neighbourhood, is not beneficial. ' be
held mid-to long-term loss of deterioration of
relations and the expansion of NATO, Russian troops could
be the United States. Nevertheless, faced with NATOdefense,
co-Chairman, as with the aim of winning the regime to
negotiate will fall a loan from
the allies. Geopolitical risks increases, also
threatened us interests also international social
order. Although the problems of exchange transactions and
intellectual property theft is also on China, such as intimidation act of
military forces in the background, rarely speak from a geopolitical point of
view.
I want to see future trends, Mr. Trump.
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■ Watanabe Yasushi (Watanabe Yasushi) was born in 1967. Doctorate from year
1997 acquisition of Harvard University (social anthropology), valid from 2005
onwards. "After America" for important works (Keio University Press,
Suntory Prize), "American dilemma" (NHK) "to resolve unexpected
America" (Shinchosha), etc.